An NFT Mid-Cap Index
Let's dive into 1-5e NFT's, how they're performing, and if we can use the index to find future stars
I loved looking at the Nansen Blue-Chip index, but for me it wasn’t as actionable as I wanted. While I’d love a Punk, Ape, Cool Cat, etc— I’m not on the moon yet. Looking at NFT’s that have done well over the past couple of months (highly rec Zeneca’s NFT Tracker, I wanted to dive deeper into NFT’s that are established— but not on the moon yet (maybe my rocket?).
I believe that NFT’s that have done well in the past (and now) certainly have the best chance of breaking out, and while we have the Dow Jones/S&P 500 for blue-chip stocks we also have the S&P 400 for mid-cap, so I dove into creating one of my own.
Criteria for a Mid-Cap Stock
I wanted to track active NFT’s in that middle band— so not BAYC, but has had a stable following and has distinguished themselves from the noise of NFT’s that are in that 0-1e range. After talking to folks in various discords (again, thank you Zen Academy 333) I came up with this:
Floor Between 1-5e
The floor has not gone above or below this range more than twice in the past two weeks
Minimum Weekly Volume of at least 150e
I wanted to make sure these NFT’s were active to reflect how folks active in the market are viewing these NFT’s
‘Standard’ NFT’s— 5-10k collections, <.2 Mint Price
I wanted to stay away from land/small art sets for now. This is for a couple of reasons— one that projects like sandbox have ~10x the NFT’s compared to a set like Lazy Lions— so they would skew the index too much.
As you’ll see later I wanted this index to be useful for analyzing other NFT’s— other data sets would make looking at other NFT’s really noisy, especially since the numbers that fit the mid-cap criteria are already pretty small.
The Initial Trey-20 Index
I now present the initial group in the Trey 20 Midcap Index. Note: Named after the Zeneca 333 Group as they’ve helped me a ton with analysis.
I put together a dash at dune analytics where you can view the index, components/percentages and how each percentile does— some interesting things:
Mid-Cap Market down ~30% from Oct— still up for August
While the NFT market is really wild and there’s definitely been a retrenchment, mid-caps seem to still be holding above August.
The 80/20 Principle Holds
Below is a look at the price of an NFT by how many days since mint for different percentile performers in the index. As you can see the top 20% moons where the rest stay stable.
An early pop is great, but you can still succeed!
While the best performers pop right from the start, slow and steady can still work. Building a community and keeping people engaged can lead to sustained growth.
Analyzing prospective NFT’s vs the Mid-Cap.
I built a dashboard that allows you to compare any NFT to those in the Trey-20 and it’s been interesting to play around with. I first wanted to look at an NFT I missed, but it getting a ton of hype— the littles:
As you can see, it’s somewhere between the 20-30 percentile for NFT’s in the mid-cap… a promising start!
Non-Fungible Fungi (which I do own 1) is below the 20th percentile, but I was curious what I can expect from it’s trajectory (or hope). I compared it to Trey-20 member Lazy Lions and it’s currently tracking fairly closely! Will keep an eye on it!
Finally, as a proud Doodler, I was curious about how it’s looking. While already in the Trey-20, it’s new and I’m hoping for a breakout:
It’s currently tracking very closely to the 60th percentile. So definitely strong, but not that 80th percentile band that really goes insane.
Anyhow that’s it for now—
Link to compare and NFT to Trey-20 Index
Take Care,
Jeremy